See the Updated Player Rankings for Tigers vs Royals – 8/29/25

Detroit Tigers

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on August 29, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the American League Central. The Royals, with a record of 69-65, are having an average season, while the Tigers sit at 78-57, boasting a strong performance. Notably, the Royals triumphed over the Tigers in their last meeting, winning decisively 12-1, but the Tigers were coming off a rough 7-0 loss in their previous game.

Seth Lugo is projected to take the mound for the Royals. Despite being ranked as the 145th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, he has managed a respectable ERA of 3.99 this season. However, his recent outing was a struggle, allowing 6 earned runs in just 4 innings. Lugo’s projections indicate he will pitch approximately 5.6 innings while allowing around 2.9 earned runs, suggesting he may be due for a bounce-back performance.

On the other hand, Chris Paddack will start for the Tigers, coming off a solid performance where he allowed just 1 earned run over 5 innings. Despite a challenging season, his projections indicate he might struggle against a Royals lineup that is among the least strikeout-prone in MLB. This matchup could favor the Royals, as Paddack’s low strikeout rate may not exploit their weaknesses effectively.

The game total is set at 9.0 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup. With a moneyline of -120, the Royals are seen as slight favorites, reflecting the close nature of this contest. As both teams battle for supremacy, this first game in the series could be pivotal in shaping their trajectories as the season approaches its conclusion.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-190/+145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chris Paddack to throw 84 pitches in today’s game (10th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Javier Baez’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 88-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 80.8-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Seth Lugo has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 6.7% more often this season (64.2%) than he did last season (57.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Salvador Perez has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 26.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 35.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  In today’s game, Salvador Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.9% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 53 games at home (+17.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 104 games (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2300)
  Maikel Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 77% ROI)