See the Updated Player Rankings for Royals vs Cardinals – (7/10/24

Kansas City Royals

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals square off on July 10, 2024, at Busch Stadium in the second game of a double-header and the second game of their series. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Cardinals holding a 48-42 record and the Royals at 49-43.

The Cardinals are coming off a 6-0 shutout victory against the Washington Nationals on July 8, 2024, featuring a game where they exceeded expectations. Similarly, the Royals dominated the Colorado Rockies 10-1 in their last outing, coming in as favorites with a closing Moneyline of -165.

On the mound for the Cardinals will be Gordon Graceffo, who, despite his impressive 2.08 ERA in one bullpen appearance this year, ranks as the 216th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This indicates he might have been fortunate in his limited action. Graceffo is projected to have an average outing, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, estimating 5.2 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed.

The Royals counter with Michael Wacha, ranked 70th among MLB starters. Wacha has been solid this season, sporting a 3.74 ERA over 15 starts. His projections include 5.7 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs. Wacha’s impressive last start on July 3, 2024, saw him pitch 6 innings and strike out 8 while allowing just 1 earned run.

Offensively, the Cardinals sit 17th in overall rankings, with notable weaknesses in power, ranking 25th in home runs. However, they’ve shown some average skill in contact hitting and speed, ranking 14th in batting average and 18th in stolen bases. Brendan Donovan has been their most consistent hitter this season.

The Royals, with an offense ranked 15th overall, have a slight edge over the Cardinals. They rank 12th in batting average and 7th in stolen bases, exemplifying a more balanced attack. Bobby Witt Jr. has been their standout player, hitting .324 with a .936 OPS and recently tearing it up with a .550 batting average over the last week.

Despite Graceffo’s apparent luck so far, he faces a Royals lineup that doesn’t walk often, which might mitigate his control issues. Betting markets favor the Cardinals with a Moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability, while the projections suggest a tight game, giving them a 51% chance of winning. With both teams in good form, expect a close contest.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.252) suggests that Adam Frazier has been unlucky this year with his .205 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Gordon Graceffo – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Gordon Graceffo is projected to throw 83 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.3% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 27 games (+6.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-135/+105)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.80 Units / 45% ROI)