See the Updated Player Rankings for Rays vs Orioles – September 25, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on September 25, 2025, tension mounts in this American League East matchup. The Rays enter this contest riding the momentum from a decisive 6-2 victory over the Orioles yesterday, further amplifying their competitive edge in this series. After a challenging season, the Rays hold a record of 77-81, which reflects an average performance. In contrast, the Orioles, at 74-84, are struggling to find their footing and hope to turn their fortunes around.

The pitching matchup features Cade Povich for the Orioles, who ranks a disappointing 136th among starting pitchers, while the Rays counter with Drew Rasmussen, an impressive 20th. Povich’s 5.06 ERA suggests a season marked by misfortune, but his 3.93 xFIP indicates he may be a bit better than his numbers show. He’s expected to pitch about 5.1 innings today, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs but is projected to give up a concerning 5 hits and 1.5 walks.

On the other hand, Rasmussen boasts a stellar 2.80 ERA and a solid 10-5 record; however, his recent abbreviated outing—where he pitched only 3 innings and allowed 2 earned runs—raises some eyebrows. He is projected to struggle with 4.5 hits and 1 walk, which could open the door for the Orioles’ offense, despite ranking 21st overall in the league.

With the Orioles’ best hitter performing well lately, boasting a .781 OPS and a solid average, they may have a slight edge to exploit Rasmussen’s vulnerabilities. Betting markets reflect this competitiveness, making the Orioles a tempting option, especially considering the projection on their team total is set at 4.20 runs. This game promises to be a critical showdown as both teams aim to make their mark before the season wraps up.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.4% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Junior Caminero has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last year’s 89.5-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Carson Williams, Christopher Morel, Bob Seymour, Everson Pereira).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Cade Povich’s 91.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1-mph drop off from last season’s 92.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Dylan Beavers tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Baltimore Orioles batters as a group rank among the best in baseball this year (7th-) as it relates to their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 150 games (+25.63 Units / 15% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 82 of their last 147 games (+8.15 Units / 5% ROI)
• Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Dylan Beavers has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.10 Units / 152% ROI)