See the Updated Player Rankings for Pirates vs Cubs – August 15, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 15, 2025, at Wrigley Field, the stakes are notably high for the Cubs, who are in a strong position with a record of 68-52 this season. The Cubs currently sit in contention for a playoff spot, while the Pirates, struggling with a 51-71 record, have experienced a disappointing season and find themselves at the bottom of the National League Central. In their previous matchup, the Cubs fell to the Pirates by a score of 2-1, adding to the intensity of this series opener.

On the mound, Chicago’s Colin Rea is projected to start. Despite being ranked as the 225th best starting pitcher in MLB, Rea has managed a 9-5 record this season, though his peripherals suggest he has been somewhat lucky with a 4.80 xERA. He last pitched well against the Pirates, going 6 innings with only 1 earned run, 6 strikeouts, and 3 hits allowed. However, he does project to have an average outing today, likely lasting around 5.2 innings and allowing 2.6 earned runs.

Opposing him is Braxton Ashcraft, who has had an average season as well, with a 3-2 record and a solid 3.19 ERA. However, he is projected to struggle today with a 4.3-inning outing and allowing 2.5 earned runs. This matchup could favor the Cubs’ offense, which ranks 6th best in MLB, especially considering they are facing a Pirates team that ranks 30th in overall offensive production.

As the Cubs aim to bounce back from their last loss and capitalize on their strong lineup against a struggling Pirates team, they enter this game as significant favorites with a moneyline of -200 and a high implied team total of 5.22 runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Braxton Ashcraft to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ronny Simon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Ronny Simon is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Colin Rea’s four-seamer utilization has risen by 23.3% from last year to this one (19.9% to 43.2%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Reese McGuire – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Reese McGuire has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-185)
  The 5th-best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+16.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 118 games (+21.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Matt Shaw – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Matt Shaw has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 47% ROI)