See the Updated Player Rankings for Padres vs Giants – 6/2/25

San Diego Padres

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San Francisco Giants

On June 2, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park in what will be the first game of their series. Both teams are positioned closely in the standings, with the Giants holding a record of 33-26 and the Padres slightly ahead at 33-24. The Giants’ recent play has been solid, but they will be looking to bolster their performance against the Padres, who are having a great season.

Logan Webb, an elite right-handed pitcher projected to start for the Giants, has a respectable 5-5 record this season alongside an excellent ERA of 2.82. He has shown promise in his 12 starts and is ranked as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings. By contrast, Webb faces a Padres offense that has struggled with strikeouts, ranking as the least strikeout-prone team in the league. This could play to Webb’s strengths, although he has projected a concerning 6.5 hits allowed on average today.

San Diego will counter with Stephen Kolek, whose 4.11 ERA, while above average, suggests he may struggle against a Giants lineup currently ranked 25th in offense overall. Kolek has had mixed results in his five starts, but the projections indicate he could allow around 2.9 earned runs.

Despite the Giants’ offensive challenges this season, their bullpen ranks 1st in the league, which could be crucial if the game remains close. With the Giants listed as favorites at a moneyline of -175, the expectation is for them to capitalize on their superior pitching. The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, underlining the potential for a pitchers’ duel in this matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Stephen Kolek (49.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 5 GB hitters in San Francisco’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Logan Webb has relied on his slider 6.2% more often this season (27.5%) than he did last season (21.3%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• LaMonte Wade Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  LaMonte Wade Jr. is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.75 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 56 games (+5.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.80 Units / 49% ROI)