See the Updated Player Rankings for Orioles vs White Sox - 4/7/26

-145O/U: 6.5
(-120/+100)+125

Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
Out of all starting pitchers, Trevor Rogers’s fastball spin rate of 2413.1 rpm ranks in the 75th percentile since the start of last season.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
Samuel Basallo’s speed has decreased this season. His 25.65 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 21.82 ft/sec now.
Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Coby Mayo pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Shane Smith – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
Shane Smith has recorded 14.6 outs per outing since the start of last season, checking in at the 19th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.350) suggests that Derek Hill has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .273 actual wOBA.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
Shane Smith – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Edgar Quero (the White Sox’s expected catcher in today’s game) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.05 Units / 51% ROI)
Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-140/+110)
Trevor Rogers has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.65 Units / 61% ROI)

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