See the Updated Player Rankings for Astros vs Rockies – July 1, 2025

Houston Astros

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Colorado Rockies

On July 1, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Houston Astros at Coors Field for the first game of their interleague series. The Astros come into this matchup riding a wave of momentum after a solid win on June 29, while the Rockies managed a narrow victory in their last game, edging out their opponent 4-3.

The Rockies, currently struggling with a 19-65 record, are having a dismal season. Their offense ranks as the 26th best in MLB and is particularly weak in power, sitting 25th in home runs. Colorado’s best hitter has managed just 14 homers this season, which underscores the team’s offensive woes. On the pitching side, Chase Dollander takes the mound for the Rockies, sporting a 2-8 record and a troubling 6.06 ERA. Although his 4.70 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, his short outings—projected at only 4.8 innings—do little to inspire confidence.

In contrast, the Astros are enjoying a strong season with a 50-34 record, fueled by an offense that ranks 14th overall, including a commendable 6th in team batting average. Colton Gordon, projected to start for Houston, holds a 3-1 record and a solid 3.98 ERA, indicating a much steadier presence on the mound compared to his Rockies counterpart.

With both teams showing contrasting trends, the betting outlook favors the Astros as the favorites at -150. However, given the Rockies’ surprisingly high implied team total of 5.25 runs, they may come in with a competitive edge. The projections hint that while the Rockies’ offense has been lackluster, the potential for an upset remains on the table, especially with the Astros facing a pitcher with Dollander’s mix of high walk rates and low strikeout rates.

Houston Astros Insights

• Colton Gordon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  The Colorado Rockies have 9 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Colton Gordon today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Typically, batters like Isaac Paredes who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Chase Dollander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Houston Astros will record 6.22 runs on average in this game: the 2nd-most of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all SPs, Chase Dollander’s fastball velocity of 97 mph ranks in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  Tyler Freeman has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .299 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .324 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 75 games (+8.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 48 games (+14.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+130/-170)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 25 away games (+20.15 Units / 42% ROI)