See the Updated Player Rankings for Astros vs Rockies – July 1, 2025

Houston Astros

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Houston Astros on July 1, 2025, at Coors Field, the stakes feel particularly pronounced given the contrasting trajectories of both teams this season. The Rockies, wallowing at the bottom of the standings with a dismal 19-65 record, find themselves in the midst of a terrible campaign. In stark contrast, the Astros are enjoying a solid season with a 50-34 record, positioning themselves firmly in the playoff hunt.

Chase Dollander, projected to take the mound for the Rockies, has had a tough year, sporting a Win/Loss record of 2-8 and a troubling ERA of 6.06. His high walk rate of 9.9 BB% could present a challenge against the Astros, who feature one of the lowest walk rates in MLB. However, projections suggest that Dollander’s xFIP of 4.71 might indicate he could improve, albeit he’s set to average only 4.8 innings pitched today while allowing 3.2 earned runs.

On the other side, Colton Gordon is set to start for the Astros. With a more respectable 3.98 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 3-1, Gordon’s low walk rate of 2.9 BB% may not be fully exploited by a Rockies lineup currently ranking 26th in offensive performance. While projections show he may allow 3.3 earned runs and struggle to pitch deep into the game, he has the potential to keep the Rockies at bay.

With a Game Total set at a high 11.5 runs, the Rockies are currently significant underdogs with a moneyline of +145, implying an estimated team total of 5.07 runs. Meanwhile, the Astros, with a moneyline of -170, have a projected total of 6.43 runs. Given the statistical disparity, the Astros look poised to capitalize on the Rockies’ struggles, especially with their average offense facing one of the league’s weaker pitching staffs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Colton Gordon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  The Colorado Rockies have 9 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Colton Gordon today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Typically, batters like Isaac Paredes who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Chase Dollander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Houston Astros will record 6.23 runs on average in this game: the 2nd-most of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Out of all SPs, Chase Dollander’s fastball velocity of 97 mph ranks in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .296 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .324 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 75 games (+8.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-155)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 48 games (+14.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+135/-170)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 25 away games (+20.15 Units / 42% ROI)