See the Odds and Betting Tips for Phillies vs Rockies – May 20th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 20, 2025, at Coors Field in a matchup that has significant implications for both teams. The Rockies, currently struggling with an 8-39 record, sit at the bottom of the National League standings, while the Phillies are enjoying a strong season at 29-18, putting them in contention for a playoff berth. In their last game on May 19, the Rockies fell to the Phillies by a score of 9-3, continuing their downward spiral.

Antonio Senzatela is projected to take the mound for the Rockies, and he has had a rough season, with a 1-7 record and a troubling ERA of 6.39. Despite his low walk rate of 6.2 BB%, Senzatela faced a high-walk Phillies offense, which could negate his control advantage. He has struggled to pitch deep into games, averaging just 4.9 innings pitched and allowing 3.7 earned runs per start, which does not bode well against a potent Phillies lineup.

On the other side, Jesus Luzardo will start for the Phillies. With a stellar 4-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.00, Luzardo has been a key component of the Phillies’ success. His ability to generate strikeouts, with a 26.0 K%, aligns well against the Rockies, who rank 1st in MLB for strikeouts. The projections suggest Luzardo will pitch around 5.4 innings while allowing 3.3 earned runs, which could be enough to keep the Rockies’ struggling offense at bay.

The Rockies rank 28th in MLB in team batting average and 28th in runs scored, making it difficult to envision a turnaround against a strong pitcher like Luzardo. Conversely, the Phillies’ offense ranks 7th, showcasing their ability to score runs consistently. With a game total set at 11.5 runs, there’s a strong chance the Phillies could exceed their implied team total of 7.10 runs, further solidifying their status as favorites in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Jesus Luzardo has used his slider 7.8% more often this year (37%) than he did last season (29.2%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Over the last 7 days, Max Kepler’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Antonio Senzatela’s 2210-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 22nd percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Farmer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Kyle Farmer’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 85.9-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 80.8-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to record the 3rd-most runs (5.71 on average) of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.12 Units / 20% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 30% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.60 Units / 55% ROI)