See the Odds and Betting Tips for Mets vs D-Backs – August 28th, 2024

New York Mets

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the New York Mets on August 28, 2024, both teams are looking to gain ground in their respective playoff pursuits. The Diamondbacks currently hold a solid record of 75-57, positioning themselves well in the National League playoff picture. In contrast, the Mets stand slightly behind at 69-63, showing an above-average performance this season but lacking the same momentum.

In their last encounter on August 27, the Diamondbacks lost to the Mets by a score of 8-3, a disappointing result that highlighted some weaknesses in their pitching staff. Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been a reliable arm with a 2-0 record and a 3.94 ERA this season, is projected to start for the Diamondbacks. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, as indicated by his 4.65 xERA. Rodriguez’s ability to handle the Mets’ potent lineup will be crucial, especially considering the Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks 2nd best in MLB.

Luis Severino takes the mound for the Mets, having had a solid outing in his last start, allowing just 1 earned run in 5 innings. Although he carries a respectable ERA of 3.84, his 4.41 SIERA indicates he may not be as effective as his current numbers suggest.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, while the Mets rank 9th, showcasing their capability to score runs. The projections indicate a close matchup, leaning slightly in favor of the Diamondbacks, who are expected to score around 4.98 runs. Given the stakes and the recent history between these teams, fans can expect an exciting game at Chase Field.

New York Mets Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Severino has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 11.9% less often this season (39.2%) than he did last season (51.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Among all starters, Eduardo Rodriguez’s fastball velocity of 91 mph grades out in the 20th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-125)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 73 games (+21.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 98 games (+9.35 Units / 7% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 50 games (+17.40 Units / 35% ROI)