See the Odds and Betting Tips for Mariners vs D-Backs – June 10th, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On June 10, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Seattle Mariners at Chase Field for the second game of their interleague series. In yesterday’s matchup, the Diamondbacks secured an impressive 8-4 victory, giving them a much-needed boost after a below-average start to the season with a 32-34 record. Meanwhile, the Mariners sit at 33-32, holding steady as they navigate an average season.

Brandon Pfaadt is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, despite a rough outing in his last start where he allowed 5 earned runs over just 3 innings. His current ERA of 5.51 raises concerns, but advanced projections suggest he may have been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Pfaadt’s ability to limit damage will be crucial, especially against a Mariners offense that ranks 6th in MLB for strikeouts.

Logan Evans, starting for the Mariners, has put together a strong season with a 2.83 ERA, although projections indicate he might be due for a downturn. Evans is a low-strikeout pitcher, which could play into the Diamondbacks’ favor as they rank 6th in MLB for the fewest strikeouts.

The Diamondbacks boast one of the league’s top offenses, ranking 3rd in runs scored and 4th in home runs, suggesting they could capitalize on any mistakes made by Evans. With an implied team total of 5.07 runs, the Diamondbacks appear poised to continue their momentum from yesterday’s victory.

While both bullpens have struggled—ranking 21st for Arizona and 20th for Seattle—the Diamondbacks’ strong offensive output and Pfaadt’s potential for a bounce-back performance give them the edge heading into this matchup.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Over the past 14 days, Jorge Polanco’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Arizona Diamondbacks bats as a group rank among the elite in the majors this year (8th-) as it relates to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+10.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 51 games (+5.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 20% ROI)