Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)+170
As the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins face off on August 24, 2024, the stakes are somewhat muted given the Marlins’ struggles this season. With a record of 46-82, Miami finds itself at the bottom of the National League, while the Cubs sit at a more respectable 64-65, battling for a potential Wild Card spot. The two teams met just yesterday, with the Cubs emerging victorious by a score of 6-3, a result that reflects the ongoing challenges the Marlins face.
In today’s matchup, the Marlins are set to start Valente Bellozo, a right-handed pitcher who has shown flashes of brilliance with a 2.45 ERA this season. However, his 4.82 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate, suggesting a decline in performance could be on the horizon. Bellozo’s ability to limit walks (6.1 BB%) could be put to the test against a Cubs lineup that walks frequently, ranking 5th in MLB in that category.
On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Shota Imanaga, a left-handed pitcher who has been solid with a 3.11 ERA and a 9-3 record. Imanaga has been effective at striking out batters, projecting to average 5.9 strikeouts today, although he faces a Marlins offense that has struggled all season, ranking 29th in MLB in both home runs and overall offensive production.
Interestingly, projections suggest the Marlins might score 4.10 runs today, which is higher than the betting market indicates. This could present a value opportunity for those willing to take a chance on Miami, especially considering their best hitter, Jake Burger, has been productive this season with 25 home runs. With the Cubs favored at -190 and a projected team total of 4.60 runs, it will be intriguing to see if they can capitalize on their offensive advantages against a struggling Marlins squad today.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-210)Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #23 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Michael Busch has strong power (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Valente Bellozo is a pitch-to-contact type (18th percentile K%) — great news for Busch.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (42.4% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)Considering the 2.42 difference between Valente Bellozo’s 2.45 ERA and his 4.87 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year and should negatively regress the rest of the season.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Jake Burger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Jake Burger has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 92-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cristian Pache, David Hensley, Derek Hill, Connor Norby).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 60 games at home (+23.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 123 games (+7.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+9.25 Units / 30% ROI)