See the Mets vs Phillies Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Friday June 20th, 2025

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off against the New York Mets on June 20, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League East matchup. Both teams are currently tied with a record of 45-30, showcasing their competitive prowess this season. The Phillies come off a narrow victory against the Mets, winning 2-1 in their last outing, while the Mets are looking to rebound after suffering a significant 7-1 loss.

Zack Wheeler is projected to take the mound for the Phillies, and he has been nothing short of exceptional this season. Ranked as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Wheeler boasts a 7-2 record and a stellar 2.76 ERA. His last start on June 15 was particularly impressive, as he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 9 batters. His ability to limit walks (5.6 BB%) will be crucial against the Mets, who rank 3rd in the league for walks this season.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with Blade Tidwell, who has struggled mightily this year. With an ERA of 14.73 and a 0-1 record, Tidwell is projected to pitch only 4.3 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs on average today. His last outing was disastrous, giving up 6 earned runs over just 4 innings pitched.

The Phillies’ offense ranks as the 7th best in MLB and is particularly strong, hitting for a .270 average and ranking 4th in team batting average. With their best hitter performing well, recording a .304 batting average over the past week, they are well-positioned to capitalize on Tidwell’s weaknesses.

With a current moneyline of -205, the Phillies are favored to win this matchup, and their strong performance this season suggests they can continue their success against a struggling Mets team. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive atmosphere as these two rivals clash once again.

New York Mets Insights

• Blade Tidwell – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Blade Tidwell has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -9.2 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Over the past 7 days, Starling Marte’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Zack Wheeler’s high usage rate of his fastball (57.4% this year) is likely harming his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Otto Kemp, Brandon Marsh).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+13.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+105)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)
  Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+8.30 Units / 166% ROI)