See the Astros vs Rays Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Monday May 19th, 2025

Houston Astros

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Houston Astros on May 19, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position within the American League. With a record of 21-25, the Rays are struggling to find consistency this season, while the Astros, at 24-22, are performing slightly better than average. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and the stakes are high for both teams as they look to gain momentum.

In their last outing, the Astros managed to pull off a victory, showcasing their ability to compete despite a lackluster offensive performance overall this season. However, they are up against a Rays team that, while ranked 23rd in the league offensively, has been effective on the bases, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. This speed may serve as a crucial factor against Astros starter Colton Gordon, who has struggled early in the season with a 6.23 ERA and is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings.

On the mound for Tampa Bay is Ryan Pepiot, who, despite a 2-5 record, has shown promise with a respectable ERA of 3.93. Power Rankings place Pepiot as the 86th best starting pitcher, indicating he is above average. The projections suggest he will pitch 5.5 innings and allow around 2.8 earned runs, making him a favorable matchup against Houston’s struggling offense, which ranks 18th overall.

Given the high Game Total of 9.0 runs and the Rays’ implied team total of 4.76 runs, this game could provide an opportunity for Tampa Bay to capitalize on Houston’s weaknesses and turn their season around. With the odds indicating a tight contest, the Rays will look to leverage their speed and Pepiot’s solid performance to secure a win.

Houston Astros Insights

• Colton Gordon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+145/-190)
  With 7 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Colton Gordon faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• The Houston Astros (20.4 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone team of hitters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Among all starters, Ryan Pepiot’s fastball spin rate of 2395 rpm ranks in the 76th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• The 7.1% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #28 squad in baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)