See the Astros vs Rays Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Monday May 19th, 2025

Houston Astros

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Houston Astros on May 19, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position within the American League. With a record of 21-25, the Rays are struggling to find consistency this season, while the Astros, at 24-22, are performing slightly better than average. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and the stakes are high for both teams as they look to gain momentum.

In their last outing, the Astros managed to pull off a victory, showcasing their ability to compete despite a lackluster offensive performance overall this season. However, they are up against a Rays team that, while ranked 23rd in the league offensively, has been effective on the bases, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. This speed may serve as a crucial factor against Astros starter Colton Gordon, who has struggled early in the season with a 6.23 ERA and is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings.

On the mound for Tampa Bay is Ryan Pepiot, who, despite a 2-5 record, has shown promise with a respectable ERA of 3.93. Power Rankings place Pepiot as the 86th best starting pitcher, indicating he is above average. The projections suggest he will pitch 5.5 innings and allow around 2.8 earned runs, making him a favorable matchup against Houston’s struggling offense, which ranks 18th overall.

Given the high Game Total of 9.0 runs and the Rays’ implied team total of 4.76 runs, this game could provide an opportunity for Tampa Bay to capitalize on Houston’s weaknesses and turn their season around. With the odds indicating a tight contest, the Rays will look to leverage their speed and Pepiot’s solid performance to secure a win.

Houston Astros Insights

• Colton Gordon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  With 7 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Colton Gordon faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Isaac Paredes’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 85.4-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 82.5-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Houston Astros offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-140)
  The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the strongest among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Danny Jansen are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Colton Gordon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 7% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #28 squad in baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)
  Curtis Mead has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 43% ROI)