See Picks and Betting Line for Yankees vs Phillies – Tuesday, July 30, 2024

New York Yankees

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Philadelphia Phillies

In a highly anticipated interleague matchup on July 30, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the New York Yankees at Citizens Bank Park. This game marks the second in the series, with both teams having strong seasons. The Phillies boast a 65-41 record, while the Yankees sit at 63-45, making this a clash of two of the league’s top teams.

The Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the mound. Nola has been stellar this season, holding an 11-4 record with a 3.44 ERA across 21 starts. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Nola ranks as the 26th best starting pitcher, reflecting his excellent form. He’s projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs with 6.0 strikeouts on average today. Nola’s control has been a highlight, with a low-walk rate of 5.9% this year, which could mitigate the Yankees’ patient approach at the plate (1st in MLB in walks).

Opposing him is Gerrit Cole, who has had a mixed season with a 3-2 record and a 5.40 ERA over seven starts. Despite these struggles, his 4.26 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could bounce back. Cole ranks as the 29th best starting pitcher and is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs with 6.1 strikeouts on average today. However, his flyball tendencies (42% FB rate) could spell trouble against a powerful Phillies lineup that ranks 6th in home runs.

Offensively, the Phillies have been impressive, ranking 6th overall according to Power Rankings. Their lineup is bolstered by Kyle Schwarber, who has been red-hot over the last week with a .350 batting average, three home runs, and a 1.419 OPS. The Yankees, on the other hand, have the 2nd best offense, driven by Aaron Judge’s recent surge, featuring a .400 batting average, four home runs, and a 1.650 OPS over the last seven games.

The Phillies’ bullpen, ranked 3rd, could play a pivotal role in this tight matchup, especially against the Yankees’ 13th ranked bullpen. With both teams’ offenses and starting pitchers capable of making significant impacts, this game promises to be a thrilling contest. The Phillies are slightly favored with a moneyline of -120, suggesting a 52% implied win probability, while the Yankees sit at +100, indicating a 48% chance of victory. The high game total of 9.0 runs suggests we could see plenty of action.

New York Yankees Insights

• Austin Wells – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Austin Wells is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The 10.7% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 club in baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Aaron Nola has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 4.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 61 of their last 102 games (+15.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+15.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-135/+105)
  Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+10.80 Units / 16% ROI)