See Picks and Betting Line for Twins vs Mets – Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Minnesota Twins

@

New York Mets

The New York Mets are set to host the Minnesota Twins at Citi Field on July 31, 2024, in what promises to be a compelling interleague matchup. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Mets holding a 56-50 record and the Twins slightly better at 58-47. The Mets are having an above-average season while the Twins are enjoying a good one. This game marks the third in the series, adding a layer of intrigue as both teams look to gain an edge.

The Mets will send right-hander Luis Severino to the mound. Severino, known for his strikeout ability, will face a Twins lineup that ranks 7th in MLB in team batting average and 8th in home runs. Severino’s ability to keep the ball in the park will be crucial against a potent Twins offense. On the flip side, the Twins will counter with right-hander Pablo Lopez, who will be up against a Mets offense that is 10th in team batting average and an impressive 4th in home runs this season. Lopez will need to navigate through a lineup that has shown considerable power throughout the season.

The Mets have been led offensively by Pete Alonso over the last week. Alonso has been on a tear, recording 8 hits, 6 runs, 6 RBIs, and 3 home runs in his last 7 games, boasting a .308 batting average and a stellar 1.227 OPS. His recent form will be key for the Mets as they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. Meanwhile, the Twins’ Matt Wallner has been their standout performer, hitting .385 with 2 home runs and a 1.500 OPS over his last 5 games. Wallner’s hot streak could be pivotal for the Twins as they face a challenging road game.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, but the Mets’ superior power hitting and home-field advantage could give them the edge in this matchup. With playoff implications on the line, this game is set to be a thrilling contest between two competitive teams.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Pablo Lopez’s fastball spin rate of 2212 rpm ranks in the 24th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Royce Lewis has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 43.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount higher than his 33.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Minnesota has not been good at making hard contact. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (92.1 mph) ranks among the league’s worst: #24 in the game this year.
  Explain: Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter’s best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

New York Mets Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)
  Compared to league average, Luis Severino has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying an extra 3.5 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Jeff McNeil is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 61 of their last 101 games (+14.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)