See Picks and Betting Line for Braves vs Phillies – Saturday, August 31, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on August 31, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League East matchup. The Phillies, currently holding a solid 79-56 record, are well-positioned for a postseason push, while the Braves sit at 74-61, fighting to stay relevant in the race. In their previous encounter, the Phillies suffered a tough 7-2 defeat to the Braves, a result that will undoubtedly weigh on their minds as they seek redemption.

Philly’s ace, Zack Wheeler, who ranks as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, takes the mound. Despite his impressive 12-6 record and excellent 2.74 ERA, Wheeler’s 3.48 xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression. He projects to pitch 6.1 innings today, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, which should give the Phillies a competitive edge. Wheeler’s last outing saw him allow just 2 earned runs over 6 innings, showcasing his capability to handle pressure.

On the other side, Atlanta’s Max Fried, ranked 6th best in MLB, brings his own merits to the table. Fried holds an 8-7 record with a solid 3.50 ERA, although he has the tendency to allow 1.7 walks per game, which could be costly against a potent Phillies lineup ranked 7th in MLB offensively this season.

Interestingly, while the betting lines currently favor the Phillies with a moneyline of -170, projections hint at a win probability of only 55% for them, indicating potential value in betting on the Braves. The Braves offense, which ranks 13th overall, will need to step up against Wheeler to make a statement after last night’s success. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup promises to be a tight contest.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Citizens Bank Park — the #9 HR venue among all major league parks — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Whit Merrifield – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Whit Merrifield has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Jorge Soler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Zack Wheeler has relied on his change-up 7.4% more often this season (7.8%) than he did last year (0.4%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  J.T. Realmuto has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 88.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-170)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense projects as the 5th-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games (+14.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 127 games (+26.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.15 Units / 24% ROI)