See Picks and Betting Line for Blue Jays vs Mariners – Sunday, May 11, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Seattle Mariners

On May 11, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Toronto Blue Jays at T-Mobile Park for the third game of their series. Last night, the Mariners fell to the Blue Jays by a score of 6-3, reflecting a recent setback as they try to maintain their competitive edge in the American League. With a record of 22-16, the Mariners have been performing well this season, thanks in part to a solid offense that ranks 7th overall in MLB. They are particularly dangerous when swinging for the fences, ranking 5th in home runs.

In contrast, the Blue Jays sit at 19-20, with their offense struggling, ranked just 20th in baseball. They have managed only 27 home runs this season, placing them 27th, which highlights their lack of power. Today’s matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Seattle’s Bryce Miller and Toronto’s Jose Urena. Miller has shown himself to be an above-average starter, holding an ERA of 4.15, while Urena has been less fortunate with an ERA of 8.59 this year.

Despite Miller’s inconsistencies, his advanced stats suggest he could fare better against a Blue Jays lineup that has been far from dominant. Projections indicate he will pitch an average of 5.9 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, which gives the Mariners a fighting chance even after last night’s loss. Urena, on the other hand, is projected to allow 3.0 earned runs in 5.0 innings, which could spell trouble against a potent Mariners lineup.

The Mariners are currently favored to win with a moneyline of -185, indicating a solid win probability. With their strong offensive capabilities and Urena’s struggles, Seattle appears well-positioned to bounce back from last night’s result and secure a victory.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  Jose Urena has been lucky since the start of last season, posting a 4.10 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.29 — a 1.19 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Extreme flyball batters like Nathan Lukes usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryce Miller.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Bryce Miller’s 93.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.3-mph decrease from last year’s 95.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Seattle Mariners have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dylan Moore, Mitch Garver, Cal Raleigh).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games (+12.20 Units / 40% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Ernie Clement has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 49% ROI)