See Picks and Betting Line for Angels vs Mariners – Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners will host the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park on July 23, 2024, in the second game of their series. The Mariners, currently 53-49, are having an above-average season and are looking to bounce back after a 3-1 loss to the Angels on July 22. The Angels, having a rough season at 43-57, managed to snag a win yesterday despite being the underdogs.

On the mound for the Mariners will be Logan Gilbert, who sports an excellent 2.79 ERA over 20 starts this season. Gilbert’s 6-5 record is reflective of his strong performances, though his 3.45 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. In his last start on July 14, Gilbert was dominant, pitching seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts and no walks. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Gilbert to pitch 5.9 innings today with 2.1 earned runs and 6.3 strikeouts, indicating another solid outing might be in store.

Opposing Gilbert will be Jose Soriano for the Angels. Soriano has a respectable 3.71 ERA over 14 starts this year. His 5-7 record doesn’t tell the whole story, as his projections for today are quite similar to Gilbert’s: 5.4 innings pitched, 2.1 earned runs, and 6.2 strikeouts. Soriano’s low strikeout rate (20.0 K%) matches up interestingly against a Mariners lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge.

Both teams struggle offensively, with the Mariners ranked 28th in overall offense and dead last in batting average. Despite this, they have shown some pop, ranking 11th in home runs. The Angels fare slightly better offensively, sitting at 23rd in overall offense and 21st in batting average. They do have speed on the basepaths, ranking 7th in stolen bases.

Bullpen reliability could be a concern for both squads, with the Mariners’ relief corps ranked 24th and the Angels’ bullpen even worse at 26th. The game projects to be low-scoring with a total of 6.5 runs.

The Mariners are favored today with a moneyline of -160, implying a 59% chance of victory, but THE BAT X projects their win probability slightly lower at 55%. This discrepancy suggests there might be some value in betting on the Angels, who come in as +135 underdogs with a 41% implied win probability but are projected to win 45% of the time. As always, betting on underdogs can offer enticing odds, particularly when public perception skews the lines.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Considering that flyball hitters hold a notable advantage over groundball pitchers, Jose Soriano and his 52.2% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard position in this game squaring off against 0 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Mickey Moniak has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has gone to his non-fastballs 9.8% more often this year (67.7%) than he did last season (57.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme flyball batters like Jorge Polanco are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Soriano.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.7% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+14.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 87 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)