See Picks and Betting Line for Angels vs Dodgers – Sunday, May 18, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on May 18, 2025, at Dodger Stadium, the stakes are high for both teams, especially with the Dodgers currently sitting at 29-17 and enjoying a strong season. The Angels, on the other hand, are struggling at 19-25. In their most recent matchup, the Dodgers secured a decisive victory, reinforcing their dominance in this interleague series.

Tony Gonsolin is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, boasting a strong 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.81. Gonsolin’s advanced metrics indicate he is above average, ranking as the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB. His high strikeout rate of 33.3% could be a significant advantage against an Angels offense that ranks 2nd in the league for strikeouts. However, Gonsolin’s tendency to allow fly balls (47% FB%) could lead to trouble against the Angels’ powerful lineup, which has already hit 61 home runs this season, ranking 5th in MLB.

For the Angels, Yusei Kikuchi is projected to start, struggling this year with a 0-4 record and a 3.72 ERA. His high walk rate of 10.4% could spell trouble against a patient Dodgers lineup that draws the 4th most walks in MLB. The Angels’ offense, ranked 26th overall, has shown flashes of power but remains inconsistent, particularly in their ability to get on base.

With the Dodgers’ offense leading the league in batting average and runs scored, they are favored heavily in this matchup. The projections suggest a high total of 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation for offensive fireworks. Given the recent performances and current standings, the Dodgers appear well-positioned to continue their success against the struggling Angels.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s 2178-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a sizeable 111-rpm fall off from last season’s 2289-rpm mark.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Typically, bats like Taylor Ward who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tony Gonsolin.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  Tony Gonsolin is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Andy Pages has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+5.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.32 Units / 30% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.70 Units / 35% ROI)