Score Prediction and Insights for Rockies vs Rays Match – March 28, 2025

Colorado Rockies

@

Tampa Bay Rays

On March 28, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Colorado Rockies at George M. Steinbrenner Field in a matchup that could have implications for both teams as they look to improve their standings. The Rays, currently struggling with a ranking as the 29th best offense in MLB, will be keen to turn things around against a Rockies squad that ranks 18th overall. The matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the first game in the series between these two clubs.

On the mound for the Rays is Ryan Pepiot, who is projected to pitch 4.7 innings while allowing 1.6 earned runs—a promising stat that suggests he could be effective despite his tendency to give up 3.4 hits and 1.3 walks. Pepiot ranks 58th among starting pitchers, highlighting his potential as a solid contributor. In contrast, Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has been struggling this season, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. Freeland’s projections indicate he will pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, but his high hit projection of 5.3 and 1.5 walks paint a less-than-rosy picture for his performance.

The Rays are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -210, reflecting their high implied team total of 4.69 runs. Meanwhile, the Rockies are seen as significant underdogs with a low implied total of 3.31 runs. With the Rays’ bullpen ranked 8th and the Rockies’ bullpen at 7th, both teams have reliable arms to call upon late in the game.

As the game approaches, Tampa Bay will look to capitalize on their pitching advantage and improve their offensive output, while Colorado faces a critical test against a team that has shown weaknesses this season.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Ryan McMahon has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-165)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Pepiot to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 77 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+150/-195)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 12th-best batter in Major League Baseball when assessing his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 126 games (+21.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+180)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 123 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
• Nick Martini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Nick Martini has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.30 Units / 39% ROI)