Score Prediction and Insights for Rangers vs Blue Jays Match – July 27, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers are set to clash in the second game of their series on July 27, 2024, at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, who are having a below-average season with a 47-56 record, will look to bounce back after a tough stretch. Toronto’s playoff hopes are fading, but they still have pride and development on the line. Meanwhile, the Rangers, sitting at 51-53, are treading water in what has been an average season for them.

Toronto will send right-hander Kevin Gausman to the mound. Gausman, whose 4.55 ERA is deceivingly high compared to his 3.82 xFIP, suggests he’s been a bit unlucky this year. He’s projected by THE BAT X—the leading MLB projection system—to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and striking out 6.0 batters. This above-average strikeout ability could be key against a Rangers offense that ranks 18th in team batting average and 17th in home runs.

On the flip side, Texas will counter with Michael Lorenzen, also a right-hander. Lorenzen sports a solid 3.53 ERA, but his 4.87 xFIP indicates he’s been fortunate thus far. Projections have him pitching 5.2 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, and striking out 3.5 batters. Lorenzen’s low strikeout rate could be problematic against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts least in MLB—an advantage for Toronto.

The Blue Jays’ offense, though struggling overall, has a bright spot in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who’s been on fire over the last week, batting .474 with a 1.583 OPS. This recent surge could be pivotal against Lorenzen, whose high-flyball tendencies might not be as exploitable by Toronto’s 27th-ranked home run-hitting squad.

Both bullpens present contrasting strengths. The Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks 22nd, while the Rangers’ bullpen is a solid 9th. This disparity could play a crucial role in the latter stages of the game, especially if the contest is tight.

The Blue Jays are favored with a -140 moneyline, translating to a 56% implied win probability. Given Gausman’s underlying metrics and Guerrero Jr.’s hot streak, the Blue Jays appear to have a slight edge in this matchup, despite their season-long struggles. The game total sits at 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring affair, but bettors might find value in Toronto’s current momentum and Gausman’s deceptive ERA.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Tallying 17.1 outs per start this year on average, Michael Lorenzen falls in the 76th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Wyatt Langford has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 9.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount lower than his 19.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 8.8% less often this year (40.4%) than he did last season (49.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Davis Schneider is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games (+13.90 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games (+13.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+9.10 Units / 91% ROI)