Score Prediction and Insights for Pirates vs Phillies Match – May 16, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 16, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. The Phillies currently hold a record of 25-18, showcasing a strong season despite a recent setback, having lost their last game 14-7 against the New York Mets. In contrast, the Pirates are struggling with a record of 15-29, coming off a more favorable outing where they shut out the Cincinnati Reds 4-0.

On the mound, the Phillies are projected to start Ranger Suarez, who ranks as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Although his ERA sits at a concerning 5.91, his xFIP of 2.97 suggests he has been unlucky and could see improvement. Suarez’s performance has been bolstered by his high groundball rate of 55%, which aligns well against a Pirates lineup that has struggled with power, ranking 29th in the league for home runs this season.

Conversely, Andrew Heaney will take the ball for the Pirates. Heaney’s current form is misleading, as his 3.15 ERA looks solid, but his advanced metrics suggest he could be due for regression. The projections indicate that he may allow around 3.3 earned runs today, which could be problematic against a Phillies offense that ranks 10th in MLB.

With the Phillies favored at -230 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 5.39 runs, they are positioned to capitalize on the Pirates’ deficiencies. The Pirates’ offense has been lackluster, and they will need a strong performance from Heaney to keep the game competitive.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has decreased 2.2 mph this year (89.3 mph) below where it was last season (91.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jared Triolo has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 96-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Because flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Ranger Suarez (50.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Johan Rojas is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Philadelphia has performed as the #2 squad in the game when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (46.2% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 41% ROI)