Score Prediction and Insights for Pirates vs Marlins Match – March 27, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 27, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of a challenging season. The Marlins rank 3rd in the National League East, while the Pirates sit 4th in the Central Division. With neither team in contention for a playoff spot, this matchup carries significant weight for both clubs as they look to build momentum for the remainder of the season.

In their last game, the Marlins struggled offensively, continuing a trend that sees them ranked 27th in MLB for overall offense this season. Despite a decent showing in batting average (14th), their lack of power is evident, ranking 27th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ offense is not much better, sitting at 28th overall and 24th in batting average. Their struggles at the plate make this matchup particularly intriguing.

On the mound, Sandy Alcantara is set to start for the Marlins. While he pitched a complete game in his last outing on September 3, 2023, he has shown inconsistency, allowing 9 hits and 2 walks in that game. Currently, Alcantara is ranked 27th among starting pitchers, with projections indicating he will pitch 6.0 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs. However, his tendency to give up hits and walks could be a concern.

For the Pirates, Paul Skenes takes the mound, coming off an impressive abbreviated start where he allowed no earned runs and struck out 3 batters. Skenes is currently ranked 1st among starting pitchers and is projected to allow just 1.4 earned runs with a solid strikeout rate of 7.4 batters per game.

Given the projections and recent performances, the Pirates may have the edge in this matchup, especially with their bullpen ranked 17th compared to the Marlins’ 28th. Bettors should keep an eye on the low Game Total of 6.5 runs, suggesting a tight contest that could go either way.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Considering that flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball batters, Paul Skenes and his 48.5% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in this matchup being matched up with 3 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Oneil Cruz can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Sandy Alcantara will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing hitters in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Typically, bats like Derek Hill who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Paul Skenes.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Kyle Stowers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 59 games at home (+21.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 away games (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+175/-230)
  Oneil Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)