Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)-130
On May 1, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs for the third game of their series at PNC Park, following a tightly contested matchup where the Pirates edged the Cubs 4-3 the day prior. The Cubs currently hold a strong 18-13 record, placing them above .500 and within the competitive mix of the National League Central, while the Pirates sit at a disappointing 12-19.
Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled all season, ranking 26th in MLB overall and in team batting average, along with a 28th ranking in home runs. They will lean on their ace, Paul Skenes, who has been nothing short of exceptional on the mound. He boasts an impressive ERA of 2.39 and is currently ranked as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Having allowed 0 earned runs in his last start, Skenes aims to carry that success forward, although he does have a tendency to allow hits with an average of 5.0 projected today.
In contrast, the Cubs are riding a wave of offensive momentum, ranking 3rd overall, with a potent combination of a .279 batting average and significant power (4th in home runs). However, their pitching rotation features Colin Rea, whose performance has been less favorable, with an ERA of 0.96 masking a higher projected xFIP of 3.12, suggesting that he may not maintain this level of success.
Given the disparity in offensive capabilities and the advantages Skenes presents on the mound, the Pirates may have an upper hand despite their overall season struggles. With a current moneyline set at -130, the betting markets suggest a close contest, but Skenes’s elite capabilities could give the Pirates the edge they desperately need.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Colin Rea has gone to his secondary pitches 9% less often this year (40.2%) than he did last season (49.2%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The 9.4% Barrel% of the Chicago Cubs ranks them as the #9 group of hitters in the league this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (97.4 mph) below where it was last season (98.9 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)This season, Andrew McCutchen has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99 mph compared to last year’s 93 mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Henry Davis pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 31 games (+3.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-120)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 28 games (+13.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+20.00 Units / 333% ROI)