Score Prediction and Insights for Brewers vs Giants Match – September 12, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

San Francisco Giants

As the Milwaukee Brewers take on the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on September 12, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams, albeit with diverging stories. The Brewers currently sit at 83-61, enjoying an excellent season and firmly in playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Giants stand at 71-74, having battled through an average season that leaves them without a clear path to postseason play.

In their last outing, the Giants faced the Brewers and were shut out, a disappointing result as they continue to struggle offensively. The Brewers, however, have been riding high, showcasing their 10th-ranked offense, which boasts a .260 batting average. With a team currently capable of aggressive base-running, ranking 3rd in stolen bases, they pose a serious threat especially against a pitcher like San Francisco’s Hayden Birdsong.

Birdsong is projected to start, marking his 13th appearance of the season, but his 5.19 ERA and advanced-stat Power Ranking of 205th suggest he has had his challenges. Coupled with a high walk rate of 15%, he may find himself in trouble against a disciplined Brewers lineup that ranks 2nd in the league for drawing walks. The projections suggest he will struggle, with an estimated 4.8 innings pitched and allowing around 2.2 earned runs.

On the mound for Milwaukee, Frankie Montas offers a stark contrast. Although his win-loss record is just 6-10, his 4.69 ERA reveals a more consistent performer, ranking him 75th among MLB starters. The projections indicate that he should pitch 5.5 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters, making him a stronger option in this matchup.

With the current moneyline favoring the Brewers at -130 and the Giants at +110, this game is set to be a competitive affair. Fans will be watching closely to see if the Giants can bounce back against a solid Brewers lineup and take advantage of their highly-rated bullpen, which ranks 1st in MLB.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Frankie Montas has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Jackson Chourio’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-135)
  The 3rd-weakest projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Hayden Birdsong has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged being matched up with 6 same-handed batters in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen grades out as the best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.35 Units / 29% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 135 games (+9.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+14.75 Units / 60% ROI)