Royals vs Twins Picks and Betting Odds – 8/12/2024

Kansas City Royals

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will face off against the Kansas City Royals on August 12, 2024, at Target Field in what promises to be an exciting matchup in the American League Central division. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Twins sporting a record of 65-52 and the Royals close behind at 65-53. This will be the first game of the series between these two rivals, with the Twins looking to bounce back after a tough 5-3 loss to the Guardians yesterday.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Pablo Lopez, who is ranked as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lopez has had an average season with a 4.74 ERA, but his 3.32 xFIP indicates he might have been a bit unlucky so far. He is a high-strikeout pitcher, boasting a 27.1% strikeout rate, though he faces a Royals lineup that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone offense in the league. This could play to Kansas City’s advantage, as they may capitalize on Lopez’s ability to throw strikes.

Brady Singer will take the mound for the Royals. The right-hander has had a great season so far, with a stellar 3.03 ERA and a ranking of 65th among starting pitchers in MLB. Singer projects to allow an average of 2.9 earned runs in this game, which is about league average.

The Twins’ offense is ranked 6th in MLB, providing a potent lineup that could challenge Singer, particularly with Willi Castro leading the charge. Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. continues to thrive for Kansas City, having an impressive season with a .347 batting average and 22 home runs.

The projections favor the Twins to score approximately 4.72 runs against the Royals’ projected total of 4.36 runs. With both teams looking to secure a crucial win, expect an action-packed game at Target Field.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Brady Singer has utilized his sinker 9.5% less often this season (41.6%) than he did last year (51.1%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (85% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kansas City Royals batters jointly rank near the top of baseball this year (4th-) as far as their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Over his previous 3 games started, Pablo Lopez has experienced a sizeable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2206 rpm over the entire season to 2155 rpm lately.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Matt Wallner has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.9-mph average to last year’s 91.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games (+13.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+155/-200)
  Pablo Lopez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 35% ROI)