Royals vs Twins Betting Line and Odds – May 23, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins are set to host the Kansas City Royals on May 23, 2025, in what is the first game of their series. Currently, the Twins sit at 27-22, while the Royals hold a slightly better record of 28-23, indicating a competitive matchup within the American League Central. Following their most recent games, the Twins are looking to rebound after a 5-1 loss to the Royals on May 21, while Kansas City is riding high after an 8-4 victory over the same team.

On the mound, Pablo Lopez is projected to start for the Twins. He enters the game with a solid 4-2 record and an impressive 2.40 ERA, ranking him as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Lopez has demonstrated his ability to strike out batters, boasting a 27.7 K% this year, although he faces a Royals offense that is the 2nd least strikeout-prone in the league. This could present a challenge for Lopez, as he may struggle to leverage his strikeout capabilities against such disciplined hitters.

Noah Cameron, slated to take the mound for the Royals, has a record of 1-1 and an outstanding ERA of 0.71, yet his 5.04 xFIP raises concerns about sustainability. Cameron’s tendency to walk hitters, with a 10.9 BB% this year, may not be fully exploited by the Twins, who rank 5th least in walks drawn.

Despite the Twins’ offense ranking only 20th in MLB, they have a high implied team total of 4.28 runs for this matchup, hinting at a potential upswing. As the Twins look to capitalize on their strong bullpen, ranked 4th best in MLB, they appear to have the edge in this pivotal game.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Michael Massey has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 7.1% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals makes them the #27 club in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Pablo Lopez’s 94-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1-mph fall off from last year’s 95-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  From last season to this one, Willi Castro’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 90.6 mph to 86.6 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Harrison Bader hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games (+12.25 Units / 34% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 50 games (+23.75 Units / 41% ROI)
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
  Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+4.45 Units / 64% ROI)