Royals vs Tigers Picks and Betting Trends – 4/20/2025

Kansas City Royals

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on April 20, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League Central matchup. The Tigers currently sit with a strong 13-8 record, showcasing a solid start to the season, while the Royals struggle at 8-14, marking them as one of the league’s weaker teams. In their last outing, the Tigers secured a decisive victory over the Royals, adding to Kansas City’s woes.

Detroit’s Tarik Skubal is projected to take the mound, and he comes with impressive credentials. Ranked as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB, Skubal has an excellent ERA of 2.66 and is expected to pitch an average of 6.1 innings while allowing just 1.7 earned runs. His ability to strike out 6.2 batters on average is a significant advantage against a Royals offense that ranks 29th in the league. Skubal’s matchup against Kansas City’s Michael Wacha, who has a mediocre 4.35 ERA and is 0-3 this season, heavily favors the Tigers.

The projections suggest that the Tigers will score around 4.05 runs, while the Royals are expected to struggle with a low total of 2.95 runs. This disparity reflects the Tigers’ strong offensive showing, ranked 9th best in MLB, compared to the Royals, who sit at 29th. With the Tigers’ bullpen also ranked 3rd in MLB, they have the depth to maintain any lead Skubal establishes.

Given the current odds, Detroit stands as a strong betting favorite with a moneyline of -195. Expect the Tigers to capitalize on their home field advantage and continue their pursuit of a successful season against a struggling Royals team.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+175)
  Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #24 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Extreme flyball bats like Salvador Perez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tarik Skubal.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Tarik Skubal’s high usage percentage of his fastball (53.6% since the start of last season) is likely harming his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Colt Keith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 81 games at home (+9.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.40 Units / 71% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+115)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.35 Units / 38% ROI)