Royals vs Giants Bets and Betting Trends – 5/19/25

Kansas City Royals

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San Francisco Giants

On May 19, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Kansas City Royals at Oracle Park for the first game of their interleague series. As both teams eye the postseason, the Giants hold a solid record of 28-19, while the Royals sit at 26-22. The Giants are strategically positioned with one of the top bullpens in MLB, ranking 1st, while the Royals’ bullpen checks in at a commendable 7th.

The Giants are projected to send Robbie Ray to the mound, who boasts an impressive 6-0 record this season. Ray has been somewhat lucky this year, with a 3.04 ERA that’s backed by a higher 4.08 xFIP, suggesting he may face some challenges going forward. Despite this, Ray’s high strikeout rate of 26.3% could be beneficial against a low-strikeout Royals offense that ranks 2nd least in MLB. Additionally, Ray’s tendency to serve up fly balls may play to his advantage against a Royals team that has struggled with power, ranking dead last in home runs.

On the other side, Kris Bubic will take the mound for Kansas City. With a remarkable 1.66 ERA and a 4-2 record, Bubic has been a solid contributor, though advanced stats indicate a potential decline, as his 3.42 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate. Both pitchers are left-handed, which could add an extra layer of intrigue to the matchup.

The projections suggest a tight contest, with the Giants currently favored at -125. Given the Royals’ offensive struggles, particularly their low home run output, the Giants may have the upper hand, especially with their potent bullpen ready to back up Ray.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kris Bubic – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Kris Bubic’s 2404-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 78th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Kansas City Royals (19.8 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone set of hitters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #28 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.4-mph average last year has decreased to 82.3-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (-130)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+4.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+15.95 Units / 36% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480/-800)
  Heliot Ramos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+11.55 Units / 144% ROI)