Royals vs D-Backs Picks and Odds – July 05, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On July 5, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Kansas City Royals at Chase Field for the second game of their interleague matchup. The Diamondbacks enter the game with a record of 43-45, reflecting an average season, while the Royals are struggling at 42-47, marking a below-average performance. Arizona’s offense has been impressive, ranking as the 3rd best in MLB this season, particularly excelling in home runs, where they sit 3rd as well. In contrast, Kansas City’s offense is struggling, ranked 28th overall and dead last in home runs.

In their previous game, the Diamondbacks showcased their offensive power, and they are expected to maintain that momentum against Royals starter Michael Wacha. Wacha has had a rough season, with a 4-8 record and a 3.62 ERA, but his xFIP of 4.35 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate. The projections indicate he may face challenges against Arizona’s high-walk offense, which ranks 4th in MLB for drawing walks.

On the mound for Arizona is Ryne Nelson, who has been a solid contributor with a 4-2 record and a 3.61 ERA this season. While he has faced inconsistencies, the projections suggest an average outing, projecting 5.5 innings with 2.7 earned runs allowed. Both pitchers project to allow a concerning 5.6 hits, which could lead to a higher-scoring game, especially with the game total set at 8.5 runs.

Overall, the Diamondbacks are favored, with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their stronger offensive capabilities and recent form. As they look to capitalize on their home field advantage, Arizona’s potent lineup will be a significant factor in determining the outcome against a floundering Kansas City squad.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Michael Wacha has relied on his change-up 6.2% less often this season (26.1%) than he did last season (32.3%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• John Rave – Over/Under Total Bases
  Over the past two weeks, John Rave’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The 7% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals grades them out as the #28 group of hitters in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Ryne Nelson’s 94.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 76th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Alek Thomas has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 73.8-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+125/-160)
  Ryne Nelson has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.25 Units / 87% ROI)