Royals vs Blue Jays Insights and Game Breakdown – 8/01/2025

Kansas City Royals

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays gear up to face the Kansas City Royals on August 1, 2025, at Rogers Centre, both teams are looking to establish momentum. The Blue Jays, holding a solid record of 64-46, sit in a competitive position, aiming to solidify their playoff hopes. Conversely, the Royals, with a record of 54-55, find themselves treading water in an average season. In their last games, the Blue Jays edged out a victory against the New York Mets with a score of 9-8, while the Royals managed a narrow 1-0 win over the Texas Rangers.

The matchup today features two right-handed pitchers: Kevin Gausman for the Blue Jays and Michael Wacha for the Royals. Gausman has had an uneven season, currently standing with a 7-7 record and a decent ERA of 3.82. Despite being ranked 107th among MLB starting pitchers, he proved effective in his last start, going 6 innings with 0 earned runs and striking out 10 batters. However, his projections suggest he will allow 2.7 earned runs today, which could present challenges for the Blue Jays.

Wacha, ranked 81st, has similar experience with 21 starts this season, but he carries a 4-9 record with a 3.53 ERA. While his peripherals indicate he’s been somewhat lucky this season, he also presents an opportunity for Toronto’s high-flying offense, currently ranked 1st in MLB for batting average. The Blue Jays will aim to capitalize on Wacha’s low strikeout rate against a lineup that ranks 25th overall in offensive production.

With the Blue Jays being favored at -155 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.11 runs, expectations lean towards their ability to continue the momentum from their last game and take a crucial step in solidifying their standing.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Michael Wacha has relied on his change-up 5.7% less often this year (26.6%) than he did last year (32.3%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Randal Grichuk has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 23.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 33.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Randal Grichuk hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Kevin Gausman has compiled a .262 BABIP this year, indicating that he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Nathan Lukes is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-150)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 82 games (+16.79 Units / 16% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 87 games (+20.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.20 Units / 50% ROI)