Royals vs Athletics Value Bets and Betting Line – 9/28/2025

Kansas City Royals

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Athletics

As the Kansas City Royals head to Sutter Health Park to face the Oakland Athletics on September 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in different situations. The Athletics, sitting at 76-85, have struggled this season, while the Royals hover around .500 with an 81-80 record. This game marks the third matchup in their series, and the Royals come off a victory from yesterday, defeating the Athletics 4-2.

The Athletics are projected to start Brady Basso, a left-handed pitcher who has had a mixed year—his ERA sits at an impressive 1.74, but his xFIP of 4.81 suggests he may not sustain this success. Basso’s last outing was rough; he allowed five earned runs in just three innings on September 25, 2024. Against a Royals offense that ranks 20th overall, Basso may find some success, especially since the Royals have been one of the least strikeout-prone teams in MLB.

On the other side, Cole Ragans takes the mound for the Royals. Ragans has shown flashes of brilliance, especially in his last start on September 23, 2025, where he struck out 10 batters in five innings, allowing only two earned runs. His 5.02 ERA is misleading; with an xFIP of 2.55, projections indicate he may be poised for a strong performance.

Offensively, the Athletics rank 8th in MLB, showcasing a potent lineup, while the Royals’ offense struggles at 20th. Despite the Athletics’ better rankings, their bullpen is ranked 30th, a significant factor that could give the Royals an edge in later innings. With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, expect a competitive matchup as both teams look to capitalize on their respective strengths.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-185)
  Cole Ragans has averaged 14.3 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 11th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Michael Massey is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#2-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kansas City has been the #25 squad in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (42.8% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  Due to his large reverse platoon split, Brady Basso will have a tough challenge matching up with 6 bats in the projected batting order who share his hand today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Darell Hernaiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Darell Hernaiz is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen profiles as the worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Moneyline (+125)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 97 games (+14.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 88 of their last 147 games (+23.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 31% ROI)