Royals vs Athletics Value Bets and Betting Line – 9/28/2025

Kansas City Royals

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Athletics

As the Kansas City Royals take on the Oakland Athletics at Sutter Health Park on September 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of a series that holds little playoff implication. The Athletics (76-85) are having a below-average season, while the Royals (81-80) are performing at an average level. In their last game, the Royals managed to secure a victory against the Athletics, which could give them a slight edge in this matchup.

Brady Basso is set to make his first start of the season for the Athletics, having previously made 10 appearances out of the bullpen. Despite his excellent ERA of 1.74, advanced metrics suggest he has been fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 4.81, indicating potential struggles ahead. Basso projects to pitch only 2.4 innings today, allowing 1.4 earned runs on average, which raises concerns about his effectiveness against a Royals offense that, while ranked 21st overall, has shown some resilience.

On the other hand, Cole Ragans takes the mound for Kansas City. Ragans, who has started 12 games this season, has a modest 5.02 ERA but is projected to perform better, with a strong xFIP of 2.55 suggesting he has faced some bad luck. His ability to pitch an average of 5.5 innings while striking out 7.0 batters per game provides a solid foundation for the Royals.

The Athletics boast a strong offense, ranking 8th in MLB, including 5th in team batting average. However, their struggles with power, ranking 26th in home runs, could hinder them against Ragans. With Basso’s low strikeout rate and high groundball percentage, the Royals may find opportunities to capitalize on his weaknesses, especially given their lack of power this season.

Overall, the projections favor Kansas City, particularly with Ragans on the mound against Basso’s untested starting role. The Royals could very well extend their winning streak against the Athletics in this matchup.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Cole Ragans has averaged 14.3 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 11th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under Total Bases
  Michael Massey is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#1-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kansas City has been the #25 squad in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (42.9% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Athletics Insights

• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under Hits
  Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.