Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
(-110/-110)-180
As the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals meet for the second game of their series at Minute Maid Park on August 30, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the standings. The Astros are currently 72-62 and having an above-average season, while the Royals hold a better record at 75-60, enjoying a strong campaign. After the Astros topped the Royals 6-3 in their previous matchup, they come into this game looking to build momentum.
Framber Valdez, projected to start for the Astros, has been having an impressive season. With a Win/Loss record of 13-6 and an excellent ERA of 3.27, he ranks as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his elite talent. Valdez has been particularly effective lately, striking out 6.8 batters per game and averaging just 2.2 earned runs allowed, despite concerns about his tendency to give up hits and walks.
On the other side of the mound, Seth Lugo for the Royals presents a different challenge. Although his record stands at 14-8 with a solid 3.19 ERA, he has shown signs of being lucky this season, indicated by his higher 3.95 xFIP. Lugo’s below-average strikeout rate of 4.5 makes him susceptible to the Astros’ strong offensive lineup, which ranks 10th in MLB and boasts the 2nd best batting average.
The projections favor the Astros, suggesting they outperform their current implied win probability, making them a valuable betting option. With Yordan Alvarez leading the charge, having hit 3 home runs in his last 4 games with a remarkable .500 batting average, the Astros are poised to capitalize on their offensive prowess against Lugo and the Royals.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Seth Lugo has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 5.9% more often this year (54.1%) than he did last year (48.2%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Extreme groundball hitters like Salvador Perez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Framber Valdez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)Framber Valdez’s 93.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph fall off from last season’s 94.7-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Victor Caratini is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Houston Astros with a 19.8% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 128 games (+15.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)