Rockies vs Tigers Picks and Betting Trends – 9/12/2024

Colorado Rockies

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies on September 12, 2024, at Comerica Park, they come off a solid victory against the Rockies, winning 7-4 the previous day. With a record of 75-71, the Tigers are having an average season, but they remain a strong favorite in this Interleague matchup, especially with elite pitcher Tarik Skubal slated to start. Skubal, who has a Win/Loss record of 16-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.53, is also ranked as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

In stark contrast, the Rockies are struggling mightily with a record of 54-92 and are projected to start Ryan Feltner, who is among the worst pitchers in the league this season. Feltner, with a dismal Win/Loss record of 2-10 and an ERA of 4.96, has faced challenges that make him a significant liability against a competent Tigers offense, despite their low overall ranking of 25th in the league.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Tigers a high implied team total of 4.40 runs for this matchup, while the projections suggest the Rockies will struggle to break through with only an estimated 2.60 runs. Given Skubal’s high strikeout rate of 30.3% facing a Rockies lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts, the Tigers are poised to make a big impact once again in this series.

As both teams look to build off their recent encounters, the Tigers should capitalize on their home-field advantage and Skubal’s elite pitching, making them the team to back in this contest.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Michael Toglia is penciled in 4th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .293 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .319 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Throwing 92.2 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Tarik Skubal places in the 76th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Zach McKinstry can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (-140)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 68 games (+15.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 0.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-180/+140)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 away games (+5.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Nolan Jones has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)