Rockies vs Royals Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 4/23/25

Colorado Rockies

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Kansas City Royals

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Chase Dollander will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing hitters in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Adael Amador – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Adael Amador tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Ryan McMahon has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Among all starting pitchers, Michael Lorenzen’s fastball spin rate of 2382.3 rpm ranks in the 78th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Michael Massey is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.20 Units / 56% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Brenton Doyle has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+14.40 Units / 360% ROI)