Rockies vs Cubs Picks and Betting Odds – 5/26/2025

Colorado Rockies

@

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies are set to face off at Wrigley Field on May 26, 2025, in a matchup that already has a distinct narrative. The Cubs are enjoying a stellar season, sporting a record of 32-21 and coming off a victory over the Rockies just yesterday, where they triumphed 11-8. In contrast, the Rockies are struggling immensely, with a dismal record of 9-44 thus far.

On the mound, the Cubs will send Jameson Taillon to the hill, who is projected to pitch an average of 6.1 innings while allowing only 1.9 earned runs, showcasing elite potential. His recent performance has been solid, as he pitched effectively in his last start on May 20, allowing just 1 run over 7 innings. Taillon’s low strikeout percentage coupled with the Rockies’ high strikeout rate could create a favorable matchup for him, as he aims to exploit their weaknesses.

Conversely, Carson Palmquist will take the mound for the Rockies. Palmquist has struggled this season, with an alarming ERA of 11.88 and a Win/Loss record of 0-2. His last outing saw him get shelled, allowing 6 earned runs in just 4 innings, which raises concerns about his ability to keep the powerful Cubs lineup at bay.

The Cubs rank as the 3rd best offense in MLB, with a particularly potent power display this season, ranking 3rd in home runs. This is bad news for Palmquist, who has a tendency to give up fly balls. The Rockies, on the other hand, sit at 28th in offensive rankings, and their struggles are compounded by their inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

With the Cubs holding a significant edge in both pitching and hitting, they enter this game as heavy favorites, backed by a robust moneyline of -330, suggesting strong confidence in their ability to secure another win against a beleaguered Rockies squad.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+230)
  Carson Palmquist is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue in the league in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jordan Beck has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.6% rate last season to 18.8% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Ryan McMahon has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5% less often this year (54.5%) than he did last year (59.5%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Reese McGuire – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Reese McGuire is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected offense today (.327 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .343 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-310)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 51 games (+10.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 53 games (+14.77 Units / 23% ROI)
• Matt Shaw – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Matt Shaw has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)