Review the Yankees vs Astros Match Preview and Winning Probability – September 3rd, 2025

New York Yankees

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the New York Yankees on September 3, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their playoff positioning with just weeks left in the regular season. The Astros currently hold a record of 76-63, while the Yankees are slightly better at 77-61. This matchup is particularly significant since the Yankees are in contention for a Wild Card spot, making every game crucial.

In their previous encounter, the Yankees emerged victorious, adding pressure on the Astros to even the series at home in Minute Maid Park. The Astros have been performing above average, but with their offense ranking 13th overall, they will need to step up against a Yankees offense that ranks 1st in the league. The Yankees have been particularly potent lately, with their best hitter recording 9 hits, 9 runs, and 3 home runs over the last week, showcasing their offensive prowess.

On the mound, Jason Alexander is projected to start for the Astros. While his 4-1 record and average ERA of 4.61 suggest some stability, advanced stats indicate he ranks as the 236th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the weaker links in the rotation. Alexander has struggled with strikeouts and is projected to pitch only 4.9 innings today, allowing an alarming 3.2 earned runs on average.

Conversely, Will Warren is set to take the mound for the Yankees. Though he is also considered a below-average pitcher, his 5.3 innings pitched projection and a 4.30 ERA show that he can be serviceable. Warren’s control issues could play into the Astros’ hands, as they rank 6th in the league for least walks drawn.

With a high game total set at 9.0 runs, both teams will need to capitalize on their offensive strengths and exploit their opponent’s weaknesses, making this matchup one to watch closely.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
  Tallying 14.6 outs per GS this year on average, Will Warren ranks in the 16th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  In terms of his batting average, Ben Rice has had some very poor luck this year. His .242 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .300.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-130)
  The New York Yankees projected lineup profiles as the best on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jason Alexander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jason Alexander will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Christian Walker has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Houston’s 88.3-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in Major League Baseball: #29 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 126 games (+18.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games (+13.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Anthony Volpe has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 16% ROI)