Review the Tigers vs Blue Jays Match Preview and Winning Probability – May 16th, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Toronto Blue Jays

On May 16, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Detroit Tigers at Rogers Centre in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes in the standings. The Blue Jays, sitting at 21-22, are having an average season, while the Tigers, at 29-15, are enjoying a great year. This matchup promises to be compelling, especially considering the performances of both teams in their previous games—Toronto lost 8-3 to the Tampa Bay Rays, while Detroit edged out the Boston Red Sox 6-5.

The Blue Jays will send Bowden Francis to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 2-5 record and an ERA of 5.40. Although his advanced metrics suggest he could improve, he projects to allow 3.0 earned runs and 5.3 hits today, which isn’t encouraging. On the other hand, Jack Flaherty, the Tigers’ starter, has a better pedigree, ranking as the 67th best pitcher in MLB with an average ERA of 4.61. Flaherty, however, had a rough outing in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over just 3 innings.

Offensively, the Tigers boast the 5th best lineup in MLB, highlighted by their strong batting average and power numbers, ranking 7th in home runs. In contrast, the Blue Jays rank 14th overall and are particularly weak in power, sitting 24th in home runs. Given the current trends and the strength of the Tigers’ offense against a struggling Francis, the projections favor Detroit, making them a team to watch in this matchup. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive yet potentially high-scoring affair.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Jack Flaherty is an extreme flyball pitcher (33% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme flyball batters like Javier Baez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bowden Francis.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Detroit Tigers today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .319, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .330 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Bowden Francis’s four-seam fastball usage has risen by 6.8% from last year to this one (49.2% to 56%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  George Springer has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 9.3% rate last year to 18.4% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 5th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+5.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 32 games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Trey Sweeney has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 away games (+8.70 Units / 84% ROI)