Review the Latest Player Stats for Twins vs Guardians – Sunday, August 3rd, 2025

Minnesota Twins

@

Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins today at Progressive Field for the third game of their series. The Guardians come in with a record of 56-54, reflecting a middling performance this season, while the Twins sit at 51-59, indicating they are struggling. In their last meeting, the Guardians edged out the Twins in a close battle, winning 5-4.

Today’s matchup features a critical pitching duel, with the Guardians set to start Joey Cantillo, who has been somewhat unlucky this year, showcasing a solid xFIP of 3.45 despite his modest 4.14 ERA. Cantillo is projected to pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs on average, with a striking average of 5.1 strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Twins counter with Jose Urena, whose numbers have been dire, as he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB, carrying a 5.40 ERA. The projections suggest Urena will pitch 4.5 innings with an average of 3.0 earned runs, which could be concerning against a Guardians offense that, while struggling, has some potential.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 27th in runs scored this season and dead last in team batting average. However, they do boast some speed on the bases, ranking 10th in stolen bases. The Twins’ offense is slightly better, ranking 19th overall, but has a poor batting average as well, placing them 22nd.

With an implied total of 4.74 runs for the Guardians and a moneyline of -165, the odds favor them in this contest. Their recent win will give them a psychological edge, as they look to build on momentum against a struggling Twins team, making the Guardians a solid bet in this matchup.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Jose Urena – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Jose Urena’s fastball velocity of 95.7 mph grades out in the 89th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  From last season to this one, Christian Vazquez’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 90.5 mph to 86.9 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Royce Lewis pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Recording 13 outs per GS this year on average, Joey Cantillo checks in at the 16th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Nolan Jones has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .281 mark is deflated compared to his .318 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gabriel Arias, Nolan Jones, Collin Kayfus).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-165)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 26 games (+12.85 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+100/-130)
  Ryan Jeffers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 71% ROI)