Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)-120
As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on March 31, 2025, both teams are looking to turn around their rough starts to the season. The Brewers sit at 0-3, having suffered a lopsided 12-3 loss to the Royals in their last game, while the Royals carry a 1-2 record after falling 6-2 in their previous outing. This Interleague matchup marks the first game in their series, and both squads are in search of a much-needed victory.
On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start Elvin Rodriguez, a right-hander who has struggled mightily lately, ranking as the 416th best starting pitcher in MLB. Rodriguez is anticipated to pitch around 4.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs, but his strikeout rate of 3.4 batters per game is concerning. The projections indicate that he could give up a troubling 3.8 hits and 1.3 walks during the game.
Opposing him will be Kris Bubic, a left-handed pitcher for the Royals, who is also below average in the league. Bubic is expected to pitch approximately 4.6 innings, with projections suggesting he will allow around 2.2 earned runs, but he, too, faces challenges with a projected 4.5 hits and 1.8 walks allowed.
Despite their early-season struggles, the Brewers boast the 10th best offense in MLB, excelling particularly in stolen bases, ranking 2nd. In contrast, the Royals’ offense ranks 14th, with a batting average of .333 from their best hitter, but their power numbers remain weak. With similar implied team totals of 4.25 runs for both teams, this matchup could hinge on which pitcher can contain the opposing offense effectively. Betting markets indicate a close contest ahead, making this game a pivotal moment for both franchises.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kris Bubic – Over/Under Pitching OutsCompared to the average pitcher, Kris Bubic has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -26.1 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Since the start of last season, Bobby Witt Jr.’s 14.3% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 93rd percentile among his peers.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Michael Massey pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Vinny Capra – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Ranked in the 0th percentile, Vinny Capra’s average exit velocity of 77.7 mph ranks among the lowest in the game since the start of last season.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forwardExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 90 of their last 163 games (+6.22 Units / 3% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+100)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+13.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+5.10 Units / 17% ROI)