Review the Latest Player Stats for Rangers vs Red Sox – Thursday, May 8, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Boston Red Sox

On May 8, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Both teams are currently hovering around .500, with the Red Sox holding a record of 19-19 and the Rangers at 18-19. The Red Sox offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB, showcasing significant talent, while the Rangers struggle at 27th, indicating a stark contrast in offensive capabilities.

Brayan Bello is projected to take the mound for Boston, coming off a strong start to the season with a 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.55. However, his 4.12 xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level of performance, indicating a potential regression. On the other side, Jack Leiter, despite being one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics, has a decent 2-1 record, but his ERA sits at a less impressive 4.58.

Bello’s high walk rate of 9.6% could be an issue against the Rangers, who rank as the 2nd least patient offense in terms of drawing walks. This matchup may favor Bello, as the Rangers’ impatience could limit their ability to exploit his control issues. Conversely, Leiter faces a Red Sox lineup that strikes out at the 2nd highest rate in MLB, which could play into his favor given his low strikeout percentage of 20.0%.

The Red Sox’s bullpen ranks 7th in MLB, a strong advantage late in the game, compared to the Rangers’ 27th-ranked bullpen. Betting markets have set the Red Sox’s moneyline at -135, reflecting a belief that they hold the edge in this contest. With the Red Sox’s offensive prowess and a solid bullpen backing Bello, they look poised to secure a victory against the struggling Rangers.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Jack Leiter’s fastball velocity of 96.4 mph ranks in the 96th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Joc Pederson has been unlucky this year, putting up a .178 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .161 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Brayan Bello will ring up an average of 4.2 strikeouts in this outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Trevor Story has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Trevor Story has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+6.40 Units / 25% ROI)