Review the Latest Player Stats for Pirates vs D-Backs – Friday, July 26th, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates at Chase Field on July 26, 2024, both teams sit in similar positions within the National League standings. The D-Backs, holding a 53-50 record, are having an average season, while the Pirates are close behind at 52-50. This game marks the first in their series, and both teams will look to gain an edge as they push through the dog days of summer.

On the mound, Arizona will lean on Zac Gallen, one of MLB’s top arms, ranked #27 among starting pitchers. Gallen has put up a solid 3.64 ERA over 16 starts this season, although his 4.25 xERA suggests he might have been a bit fortunate. Gallen is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs with 6.6 strikeouts on average.

The Pirates counter with Luis Ortiz, who, despite an excellent 2.57 ERA, is rated as one of MLB’s worst pitchers. Ortiz’s 4.27 xFIP hints at some luck, and projections are not kind to him: 4.6 innings pitched, 3.1 earned runs allowed, and just 3.3 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have the advantage. Ranked 9th in overall offense, they are particularly strong in batting average (7th) but only average in home runs (16th). Ketel Marte has been red-hot over the last week, hitting .348 with a 1.184 OPS, 3 home runs, and 7 RBIs in 6 games. In contrast, the Pirates rank among the league’s worst offenses, sitting at 27th overall and struggling in key metrics like batting average (26th) and home runs (23rd). Rowdy Tellez has been their best hitter over the past week, batting .357 with a 0.976 OPS.

Given these dynamics, the Diamondbacks are favored in today’s matchup. They have a projected win probability of 66% according to THE BAT X, which is 6% higher than the betting market’s implied odds. With a potent offense facing a struggling pitcher in Ortiz, Arizona looks to capitalize and start this series on the right foot.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Luis Ortiz has gone to his cut-fastball 22.9% more often this season (23.2%) than he did last season (0.3%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Nick Gonzales’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 87.6-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 84.6-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Joey Bart).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-165)
  Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Corbin Carroll’s true offensive ability to be a .328, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .046 disparity between that figure and his actual .282 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks hitters jointly rank among the best in Major League Baseball this year (10th-) as it relates to their 89-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games (+12.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 93 games (+12.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Nick Gonzales has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 55% ROI)