Review the Latest Player Stats for Marlins vs Pirates – Wednesday, June 11th, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Miami Marlins on June 11, 2025, in what has become a battle of underperformers. Both teams sit at the bottom of their division, with the Pirates holding a record of 27-41 and the Marlins at 25-40. The Pirates are currently projected to start Bailey Falter, who has had a mixed season. Despite being ranked as the 203rd best starting pitcher in MLB, his ERA of 3.49 indicates he has been somewhat effective, though his 4.69 xFIP suggests he may be due for a downturn.

In contrast, Cal Quantrill, projected to start for the Marlins, has struggled with a 5.63 ERA and a 3-6 record. His low strikeout rate of 17.2% could be a liability against the Pirates, who rank 6th in MLB for strikeouts. Interestingly, Falter’s tendency to allow fly balls may benefit him against a Marlins offense that has hit the 4th fewest home runs in MLB this season.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 27th overall, while the Marlins sit in the middle at 18th. The Pirates may have a slight edge, especially as their best hitter has been on a roll, batting .429 over the past week. However, the Marlins’ best hitter has also performed well, boasting a .533 batting average in the same span.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, oddsmakers favor the Pirates with a moneyline of -150, implying a significant chance for them to secure a win. Given the struggles of both pitchers, this matchup could provide a unique opportunity for the Pirates to break out of their offensive slump and capitalize on Falter’s promising ERA.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Cal Quantrill’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this year (92.6 mph) below where it was last year (93.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  From last season to this one, Xavier Edwards’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 87.1 mph to 84.5 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Nick Fortes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Nick Fortes ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Bailey Falter is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #26 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)
  Extreme flyball bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Cal Quantrill.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.20 Units / 71% ROI)
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Adam Frazier has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.20 Units / 23% ROI)