Review the Latest Player Stats for Braves vs Guardians – Friday, August 15, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Cleveland Guardians

On August 15, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Atlanta Braves at Progressive Field for the first game in their interleague series. The Guardians currently hold a record of 63-57, giving them an above-average season, while the Braves sit at 53-68, struggling significantly this year. Notably, the Guardians are coming off a recent win, which showcased their pitching prowess as Joey Cantillo went six strong innings in a tight contest.

Joey Cantillo is projected to start for Cleveland, bringing a 3-2 record and a respectable 4.11 ERA into the matchup. Despite being ranked the 83rd best starting pitcher in MLB, Cantillo’s stats suggest he may be due for better luck, given his xFIP of 3.58, which indicates he has been slightly unlucky this season. However, his tendency to walk batters at an 11.9% rate may create opportunities for the Braves, who rank 3rd in the league for drawing walks.

On the other side, Hurston Waldrep will take the mound for Atlanta. Although he boasts an impressive 1.54 ERA and a perfect 2-0 record this season, his xFIP of 3.72 indicates he might be overachieving. Waldrep is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, which aligns with the Guardians’ struggling offense that ranks 27th in MLB.

With the Guardians’ low offensive rankings in batting average (29th) and overall offense (27th), they will need their best hitters to step up against Waldrep. Despite the Guardians currently being favored with a -120 moneyline, the Braves have the potential to capitalize on Cantillo’s control issues. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for some offensive firepower.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Hurston Waldrep was on point in his last GS and gave up 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Michael Harris II is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Joey Cantillo is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 10th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Gabriel Arias has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Carlos Santana pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 62% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Brayan Rocchio has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 48% ROI)