Review the Angels vs Rangers Match Preview and Winning Probability – April 16th, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers will host the Los Angeles Angels for the second game of their series on April 16, 2025. The Rangers come off a dominant 4-0 victory over the Angels yesterday, while both teams find themselves in competitive positions within the American League West. The Rangers sit at 10-7, enjoying a solid start to the season, while the Angels are just behind at 9-7, still looking to build momentum.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Patrick Corbin, who has struggled this season with a 6.75 ERA and a troubling 10.98 xERA, indicating he has been fortunate to have such a low earned run average. Corbin’s last outing was uneventful, as he allowed 3 earned runs over 4 innings. His high flyball rate could be a concern against an Angels lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in home runs.

Conversely, Jose Soriano will take the ball for the Angels, coming off a strong performance where he pitched 8 innings and allowed just 1 earned run. With an impressive 2.70 ERA and a solid #38 Power Rankings spot among all MLB starters, Soriano has been a bright spot for the Angels this season.

Offensively, the Rangers rank as the 24th best team in MLB, struggling to produce runs consistently, while the Angels boast the 7th best offense, highlighted by their power-hitting capabilities. The projections for today’s game suggest a high total of 9.5 runs, reflecting the expectation of offensive fireworks, particularly from the Angels.

Despite the Rangers being slight underdogs with a moneyline of +105, their performance at home and the potential for Corbin to find some form could make this matchup closer than anticipated. With two teams eager for a win, fans can expect an exciting contest.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Jose Soriano has relied on his sinker 13.3% more often this season (60.2%) than he did last year (46.9%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Jo Adell has strong power (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Patrick Corbin is a pitch-to-contact type (14th percentile K%) — great news for Adell.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Patrick Corbin’s 91.4-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 14th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jonah Heim has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.1-mph average to last year’s 88.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  In today’s game, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.9% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (+115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games (+7.85 Units / 111% ROI)