Review Player Predictions Overview for Tigers vs Twins – Sunday April 13, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins host the Detroit Tigers on April 13, 2025, the matchup carries significant implications for both teams. The Twins, sitting at the bottom of the American League Central with a record of 4-11, are looking to break out of a troubling season. They suffered a shutout loss in their last game against the Tigers, who improved to a promising 9-5 after their 4-0 victory the previous day.

On the mound, Simeon Woods Richardson will take the start for Minnesota, while Casey Mize aims to keep the momentum going for Detroit. Woods Richardson has struggled, with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.59, ranking him at #128 among MLB starters. However, the projections suggest he might perform better than his results indicate, as his 4.65 xFIP shows he may have been a bit unlucky this season. Meanwhile, Mize has been outstanding, sporting a flawless record at 2-0 and an impressive ERA of 0.77. Yet, projections suggest he could regress, hinting at potential vulnerability in this matchup.

Offensively, the Tigers have showcased a stellar lineup, ranking 2nd in MLB in terms of overall talent, and their best hitter is on fire, boasting a .314 batting average and a 1.066 OPS. In contrast, the Twins find themselves in dire straits, ranking 26th in team offensive production this season. With a moneyline set at -110 for both sides, oddsmakers see this as a tightly contested game, indicating that the Twins could be undervalued given their current struggles. As the game unfolds, the battleground between Mize’s elite pitching and the Twins’ underwhelming offense could be the key to determining the outcome.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Casey Mize was on point in his previous game started and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Colt Keith’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 87.8-mph EV last season has fallen off to 80.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ryan Kreidler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  In today’s matchup, Ryan Kreidler is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.6% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richardson will “start” for Minnesota Twins today but will be treated as more of an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Extreme flyball bats like Byron Buxton generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Casey Mize.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-205)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 97 of their last 171 games (+15.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Willi Castro has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+7.10 Units / 34% ROI)