Review Player Predictions Overview for Pirates vs Twins – Saturday July 12, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Minnesota Twins

On July 12, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Target Field for the second game of their interleague series. After securing a narrow 2-1 victory over the Pirates the previous day, the Twins hold a record of 46-48 this season, positioning them in the midst of an average campaign. Conversely, the Pirates have struggled, sitting at 38-57, marking one of the worst starts in MLB.

The Twins are projected to start right-hander Cole Sands, who has had difficulty this season, averaging just 1.0 innings pitched and allowing around 0.6 earned runs per game. His last start on July 5 was abbreviated, lasting only one inning but without giving up any earned runs. This inconsistency could be problematic against a struggling Pirates lineup, which ranks 29th in MLB in offensive production, making it a favorable matchup for Sands if he can find his rhythm.

Pittsburgh counters with Michael Burrows, another right-handed pitcher. Burrows has performed reasonably well, owning a 3.63 ERA and striking out 4.5 batters per game. However, projections indicate he might be due for a downturn, as his 4.52 FIP suggests he may have been fortunate thus far. In his last outing, he managed to throw 5 solid innings without yielding any earned runs, which could bode well for the Pirates as they look to bounce back.

Offensively, the Twins’ best hitter has been showing signs of life, batting .571 over the past week, while the Pirates’ top performer has also been productive recently, with a robust .400 average over the same span. Given the Twins’ higher implied win total of 5.02 runs compared to the Pirates’ 4.48, they appear to hold the edge in this matchup, particularly with a decent bullpen backing them, ranked 16th in MLB. If Minnesota’s offense can continue to capitalize, they might extend their winning streak.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Mike Burrows has compiled an 11.9% Swinging Strike percentage this year, placing in the 77th percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Spencer Horwitz has paced 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” today, Cole Sands may not pitch more than a couple innings consider he will be treated as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Typically, batters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Michael Burrows.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Rating 2nd-highest in the league this year, Minnesota Twins batters as a group have posted a 16.8° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable stat to study power skills).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 79 games (+7.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games (+17.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 39% ROI)