Review Player Predictions Overview for Pirates vs Twins – Saturday July 12, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Minnesota Twins

On July 12, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Target Field for the second game of their interleague series. The Twins are currently in a mid-tier position with a record of 46-48, while the Pirates sit at a dismal 38-57, making this matchup particularly significant for Minnesota as they look to gain momentum in a season that has been mostly average.

The Twins came off a narrow win against the Pirates yesterday, securing a 2-1 victory. While both teams have struggled this season, the Twins’ recent performance suggests they could be turning things around. They rely on right-handed pitcher Travis Adams, who has had a rocky start to the season, sporting a concerning ERA of 11.25. Despite this, advanced metrics indicate Adams has been unlucky, and he projects to perform better going forward, potentially giving the Twins an edge against a struggling Pirates lineup that ranks 29th in the league offensively.

Opposing Adams is Michael Burrows, who has a solid ERA of 3.63 but has shown signs of underperformance with an above-average FIP of 4.52. Burrows pitched well in his last start on July 5, going 5 innings with no earned runs, which could give him confidence heading into this game.

Overall, betting markets indicate that the Twins have a favorable implied team total of 4.76 runs, reflecting their potential against a Pirates team that has been inconsistent at best. Furthermore, the Twins boast the 5th best bullpen in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, which could prove crucial in late-game scenarios. With both teams looking for a win, this matchup holds significant weight for Minnesota as they aim to capitalize on the Pirates’ struggles.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+120)
  Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under Stolen Bases
  Grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Spencer Horwitz has paced 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Travis Adams – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to average, Travis Adams has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -13.7 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Pittsburgh’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Matt Wallner, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Rating 2nd-highest in the league this year, Minnesota Twins batters as a group have posted a 16.8° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable stat to study power skills).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 79 games (+7.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games (+17.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)
  Royce Lewis has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.25 Units / 69% ROI)