Review Orioles vs Angels Bets and Betting Trends – Saturday, May 10, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles square off on May 10, 2025, in the second game of their series at Angel Stadium. After the Orioles claimed a 4-1 victory in their last matchup, both teams are struggling to find their footing this season, with the Angels sitting at 15-22 and the Orioles at 14-23.

Jack Kochanowicz, projected to start for the Angels, has had a rocky season, holding a 1-5 record with a 5.79 ERA. His last outing was particularly rough, allowing 5 earned runs over 5 innings on May 4. Despite his struggles, the projections suggest he may have been somewhat unlucky, indicated by his xFIP of 5.25, which is lower than his ERA. Kochanowicz’s average projection for today suggests he will pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 3.2 earned runs and striking out 3.2 batters.

On the other side, Kyle Gibson takes the mound for the Orioles. Gibson, who has struggled this year with a 0-1 record and a staggering 14.09 ERA, also had a rough outing on May 4, giving up 3 earned runs in just 4 innings. His projections indicate he may pitch 5.4 innings while allowing around 2.8 earned runs, but he also has a tendency to give up hits, projected at 5.4 today.

Offensively, the Angels rank 26th in MLB for team batting average, but they are 5th in home runs, showcasing their power potential. Conversely, the Orioles rank 21st overall in offense and 26th in batting average, suggesting they might struggle to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

With the Angels as underdogs at +120 and the Orioles favored at -145, the projections indicate a higher implied team total for the Orioles at 5.36 runs compared to the Angels’ 4.64 runs. However, given the volatility of both teams’ pitching, this matchup could still swing in favor of the Angels if their offense can capitalize on Gibson’s struggles.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Kyle Gibson’s four-seamer rate has decreased by 8.1% from last year to this one (13.3% to 5.2%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Adley Rutschman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Adley Rutschman has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph dropping to 76.9-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be best to expect positive regression for the Baltimore Orioles offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-180)
  Jack Kochanowicz’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (94.8 mph) below where it was last season (95.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Taylor Ward is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#3-worst on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Angels hitters as a group grade out 3rd- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 11% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 43% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+7.30 Units / 91% ROI)