Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
(-120/+100)-195
The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals in a pivotal National League East matchup on August 22, 2025. The Phillies, who are 74-53 this season, are enjoying a strong campaign and currently sit in a favorable position for a Wild Card spot. In contrast, the Nationals are struggling at 52-75 and have not been able to find consistent success. This game marks the first of a series between the two teams.
In their last outings, the Phillies showcased their offensive prowess by defeating the Nationals 11-2, while the Nationals managed a 9-3 victory against another opponent. Notably, Taijuan Walker, the Phillies’ projected starter, is coming off a solid performance where he pitched 7 innings with 2 earned runs, 3 strikeouts, 6 hits, and 2 walks. However, his overall season performance has been underwhelming, ranking as the 259th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he has been one of the weaker options in the league.
On the mound for the Nationals is Cade Cavalli, who has been impressive in limited action this season, boasting a stellar 2.20 ERA and a ranking of 75th among starting pitchers. His last start was a standout, as he pitched a complete game shutout, allowing no earned runs and striking out 5 batters.
Offensively, the Phillies are ranked 6th in the league, with a powerful batting average that places them 2nd overall. Their best hitter has been on fire recently, contributing significantly to the team’s success with a 1.507 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Nationals rank 23rd in offense, struggling to generate runs consistently.
Given the projections, the Phillies are favored in this matchup, with their strong lineup and Walker’s potential to improve. The high Game Total of 9.0 runs suggests an expectation of scoring, making this game one to watch for bettors looking to capitalize on the Phillies’ favorable odds.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-165)Cade Cavalli has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 9.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Riley Adams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Riley Adams has big-time power (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (32.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker doesn’t generate many whiffs (4th percentile K%) — great news for Adams.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Taijuan Walker has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 11.5% more often this year (71.3%) than he did last year (59.8%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Brandon Marsh has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 91.6-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-195)The Philadelphia Phillies projected batting order profiles as the 3rd-strongest of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-145)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games (+11.81 Units / 12% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 36 away games (+9.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)Dylan Crews has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.40 Units / 93% ROI)