Review Marlins vs Dodgers Betting Line and Odds – 4/30/2025

Miami Marlins

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On April 30, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium for the third game of their series. The Dodgers are enjoying a strong season with a 20-10 record, while the Marlins struggle at 12-17. In their last matchup, the Dodgers secured a win, highlighting their impressive form.

Tony Gonsolin is projected to start for the Dodgers. While he ranks 145th among MLB starters, indicating he’s below average, the projections suggest he will pitch an average of 5.2 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs. Gonsolin’s strikeout rate is below average, but he will face a Marlins lineup that has struggled to produce runs consistently.

Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Marlins. His season has been less than stellar, with a 7.83 ERA and a 2-2 record in five starts. Although the projections indicate he might be due for a bounce-back, allowing 3.4 earned runs over 4.6 innings, his performance this season has left much to be desired.

The Dodgers boast the 5th best offense in MLB and rank 2nd in home runs, providing ample support for Gonsolin. Meanwhile, the Marlins sit at 15th overall in offensive rankings but have a strong batting average at 4th, which could pose some challenge, especially if their hitters find their rhythm.

With the Dodgers favored heavily in betting markets, their high implied run total of 5.93 runs reflects confidence in their lineup. The Marlins, as underdogs with a low implied total of 3.57 runs, will need a significant turnaround if they hope to upset the Dodgers in this matchup.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+240)
  Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the Miami Marlins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Dane Myers tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tony Gonsolin.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen grades out as the worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – -1.0 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line (-140)
  Tony Gonsolin is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #5 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Tommy Edman is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In today’s game, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.5% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-290)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+4.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 42% ROI)
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Eric Wagaman has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 33% ROI)