Review Marlins vs Dodgers Betting Line and Odds – 4/30/2025

Miami Marlins

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On April 30, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Dodgers are riding high after a commanding 15-2 victory over the Marlins just a day prior, showcasing their offensive prowess. With a record of 20-10, the Dodgers are firmly in contention, while the Marlins, at 12-17, are struggling to find their footing this season.

The Dodgers are projected to start Tony Gonsolin, who has been somewhat inconsistent this year, ranked just 141st among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gonsolin’s last outing was a rough one, as he allowed 10 earned runs in just three innings. However, he projects to pitch an average of 5.1 innings today, allowing around 2.5 earned runs, which, despite being below average in strikeouts, could still hold up against the Marlins’ lackluster offense.

Cal Quantrill will take the mound for Miami, and his struggles have been well-documented. With an ERA of 7.83 and a 4.94 xFIP, he has faced significant challenges this season and ranks among the worst in MLB. Quantrill’s projection suggests he will pitch 4.5 innings today, giving up approximately 3.4 earned runs. This could be problematic against a Dodgers offense that ranks 3rd in MLB, highlighted by their impressive 2nd ranking in home runs.

Given the current odds, the Dodgers are significant favorites with an implied team total of 6.33 runs, while the Marlins are projected to muster only 3.67 runs. As the series continues, the Dodgers appear poised to capitalize on the Marlins’ pitching woes and maintain their momentum.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-185)
  Cal Quantrill’s 92.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.2-mph drop off from last season’s 93.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Extreme flyball bats like Otto Lopez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tony Gonsolin.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen grades out as the worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-295)
  Tony Gonsolin is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #5 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Max Muncy has strong power (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (27.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill has a pitch-to-contact profile (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Muncy.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  In today’s game, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.4% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-315)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+4.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 42% ROI)
• Enrique Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)
  Enrique Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+10.00 Units / 111% ROI)